PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO AND DECOMPOSITION OF FERTILITY RATES AMONG WOMEN OF REPRODUCTIVE AGE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Abstract

Fertility is a key component of population change. Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have high fertility, driven largely by cultural preferences for larger families and limited access to family planning. This study assessed fertility rates among women of reproductive age in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using PPR and decomposition analysis. This cross-sectional design study utilizes Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data from eight countries selected from each of the four regional blocks in SSA. Across countries, fertility rates peaked consistently among women aged 20–29 years and were consistently higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Contributions to rural-urban fertility differences declined steadily with age, as they became minimal among women aged 45-49 years. The PPRs from 0 to 1, from 1 to 2, and from 3 to 4 were projected to remain high across the studied countries. Persistently high PPR from 0 to the 4th birth suggests that most women in the analyzed countries are likely to progress to at least two births, which indicates sustained childbearing behaviour across the reproductive lifespan rather than a direct measure of fertility preference. Urban-rural differences in fertility were driven predominantly by women aged 20-29 years, identifying a critical age gap for policy intervention.