POST-FRANÇAFRIQUE IN THE SAHEL: DEPENDENCY, AUTONOMY, AND EXTERNAL REALIGNMENTS IN MALI, BURKINA FASO, AND NIGER

Abstract

This study examines whether recent political developments in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger represent a substantive break from the Françafrique system or a reconfiguration of external dependency under new geopolitical alignments. Drawing on Dependency Theory and Modernisation Theory, the study examines key mechanisms of Françafrique, including monetary relations, security cooperation, resource governance, and corporate influence, with particular attention to how recent security and economic realignments in the Sahel affect autonomy and dependency. Using a comparative case-study design structured by a most-similar-systems logic, qualitative document analysis, and theory-guided thematic analysis, the study indicates that the expulsion of French military forces, reassessment of resource arrangements, and diversification of international partnerships constitute a significant challenge to France’s historical influence. However, the findings indicate that rejecting French influence does not automatically produce substantive political and economic autonomy. Emerging partnerships with actors like China, Türkiye, and Russia may expand diplomatic flexibility, but risk reproducing dependency if strategic sectors become reliant on alternative external actors for finance, technology, and security provision. Substantive autonomy therefore also depends on stronger domestic institutions, bargaining capacity, productive capabilities, and greater control over development priorities. By integrating monetary, economic, and security dimensions, the study contributes to debates on postcolonial dependency, autonomy, and Africa’s evolving international relations.